With the brand new series of I’m A Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here now on TV and taking place at Gwrych Castle in Abergele, North Wales we take a look at who the bookies think could be the next winner with some tasty stats from Betway.
It’s the same show but in a colder location, there is still the gut-wrenching trials of eating the strangest foods known and of course, the hysterical banter from the shows hosts Ant and Dec.
There have been a wide variety of celebrities on the show over the years from Carol Thatcher to Carl Fogarty to Vicky Pattison, lots of celebrities have been crowned King or Queen of the Jungle, but there are still trends and patterns that define the list of winners.
Overall, 221 celebrities have traded their dignity for “the best experience of my life” and a fat paycheque, and we analysed them all to establish the blueprint for success.
The AGE Stats
So let’s delve into the age of the winners of I’m A Celebrity, looking at the stats we can see that it’s not just a young persons game as the ages are widely spread.
Since it’s inception the show has had three winners aged in their 50s – Tony Blackburn (series 1), Carol Thatcher (series 5) and Christopher Biggins (series 7) – and, of course, 71-year-old King of the Jungle Harry Redknapp in Series 18.
With three to four weeks spent in the jungle, finghting off the bugs (and that’s not just the ones in the trials, as well as trying to keep calm and collective when some campmates may not be getting on with each other.
Five of the first 14 winners were in their 20s, but four were in their 30s, two were in their 40s and three were in their 50s. Which you could say is a rather reasonably random spread.
But that four of the five winners since then – Redknapp being the exception – have been women in their 20s seems like more than a coincidence.
Vicky Pattison from Geordie Shore led the way in series 15, establishing herself as the confident heartbeat of the camp early on and earning a popular victory.
Scarlett Mofatt, Georgia Toffolo (Toff) and Jacqueline Jossa followed the template, and it would be a surprise if a younger campmate who resonates most with the modern TV audience was not crowned king or queen this year, too.
In the 2020 line-up, Paralympian Hollie Arnold, Strictly’s AJ Pritchard and former Eastenders actress Jessica Plummer fit the bill.
I’m A Celebrity Jobs
There is surely a strong correlation between the modern trend of younger winners and what jobs made them famous.
Pattison, Moffatt and Toff established themselves in the world of reality television – Geordie Shore, Gogglebox and Made In Chelsea – that showed them *cough* being themselves, so they were already familiar to viewers.
Perhaps more importantly, the three of them came across well, too, changing Yer Da’s perception of reality TV personalities and increasing their popularity.
In this year’s line-up no contestant comes from a certain type of tv programme, it may be no surprise that when it comes to crowing the first king/queen of the castle was a reality TV star, as ‘reality’ celebrities seem to be more popular than traditional celebrities like TV presenters or pop stars.
It’s fascinating that a musician won five of the first 13 series of I’m A Celebrity, but none of the last six, despite some relatively big names like Tony Hadley and Nadine Coyle entering.
When it comes to TV hosts Noel Edmonds and Danny Baker, meanwhile, have been voted off first in recent series, despite being two of the biggest names – on the biggest money – to ever enter the jungle, which can’t have done much for their egos, or the ITV bosses’ blood pressure.
The reigning Queen of the Jungle, Jossa, was an actor on Eastenders between 2010 and 2018, on television for four nights per week between 2010-18.
Soap stars have been two other winners, Joe Swash in Series 8 and Charlie Brooks in Series 12. Plummer or Richie could become Albert Square’s fourth winner, you just never know, Shane Richie certainly has the comedic entertainment touch to keep the public and the camp entertainment.
But recent trends still seem to favour somebody who has been themselves on TV, rather than somebody else, with professional dancer Pritchard fitting the bill again.
Celebrities and their Social Media Following
It makes sense that celebrities’ social media presence doesn’t make much of a difference to the outcome of I’m a Celebrity.
The format of the programme, the celebrities can’t do the tweeting etc that they normally would – contestants spending up to two weeks in the jungle before anybody is voted off – means that how they come across on screen is more important than how they were perceived previously.
Strangely a bigger social media following could be deemed a disadvantage for the celebs in the jungle castle.
Over the last four series of I’m A Celebrity, the winner has always been one of the six most-followed celebrities on Twitter, but never one of the top two.
Back in Series 16, Baker had comfortably the biggest Twitter following and was voted off first, while the celebrity with the biggest follower count has since finished fifth, fifth and sixth.
Mo Farah and Vernon Kay, who both boast over 1m followers, could face the disadvantage in this year’s show.
The runner-up in three of the last four series, meanwhile, has had one of the five smallest Twitter follower counts, with last year’s second-place celebrity Andy Whyment possessing the third-smallest following.
The public, perhaps, like to vote for somebody they get to know throughout the competition, so don’t be suckered into backing the big names – a big personality is more important than mega fame.
Pritchard (133k followers) still seems to fit the criteria.
I’m A celebrity Trials
Love them or hate them, trials are what makes the show and it’s moments of turning away from the screen and peeking back to see if the celebs have eaten the fish eye and kept it down.
Surprisingly we are, however, always given a good clue as to who is in contention to win I’m a Celebrity in the first week or so – or at least who isn’t.
The public really likes to give Bushtucker Trials to those that don’t seem to be popular as nasty public come together on those they don’t like rather than voting for those they want to see more of, this year we have seen poor Jordan tan part in the first few trials.
But when you think about it, it makes sense. You’re hardly likely to send a celebrity you like to be trapped inside a water tank unscrewing yellow stars for two minutes.
Looking back over the last 19 series of I’m a Celeb, the average finishing position of the celebrity who is voted by the public to do most Bushtucker Trials is 6.5. Which generally means that they are in the public’s crosshairs before being voted off early.
In the last 12 series, the celebrity (or at least ‘a’ celebrity, in the case of a tie) who has been voted to take on the most trials has ended up finishing outside the top five.
The celebrity voted to do most trials has gone on to win just twice – Kerry Katona in series 3 and Carol Thatcher in series 5. It is very unlikely to happen in 2020!
Contestants generally decide between themselves who will take on the trials in the latter stages and the heroic sacrifice made by the celebrities who put their hands up then clearly impresses voters to get them on their side.
Across all 19 series, the contestant that takes on the most celebrity-elected trials has finished in an average position of 2.8.
Evidently, volunteering to lie in a dark cave with 100 snakes slithering all over you, rather than having it forced on you, is a key difference.
This year’s projected winner at 33/1 on Betway is AJ Pritchard, but with Russell Watson and Ruthie Henshall now in the castle could this change the odds.
Karen Woodham is the founder and owner of the Blazing Minds. She is also a Cinema reviewer and works with RealD 3D reviewing the latest 3D releases and IMAX, she has also had several articles published in various publications including the first edition of SFW Magazine. In 2015 she became an Award Winning Blogger and also has her website listed as one of the UK’s Top 10 Film Blogs.
